Recent Insight

Changing Attitudes in the US: “Live and Let Die”

06 May 2020 Some Americans' initial and relatively short-lived bravado for flattening the curve has quickly shifted over recent weeks.  Ultimately, this is not surprising as the types of sacrifices that would have been required to sustain a suppression of the outbreak in the US have not been seen in generations.  Now, many people either [ Read More ]

Changing Attitudes in the US: “Live and Let Die”2022-03-05T12:36:11-06:00

Bear Rally or V-Recovery: Depends on Reopening

01 May 2020 Americans have collectively done better than anyone expected; a great credit to how much we can accomplish when we put aside the things that divide us and work together.  Now as we move to reopen, we have to face and overcome some unfortunate facts if we want to win on the next [ Read More ]

Bear Rally or V-Recovery: Depends on Reopening2021-01-20T22:38:39-06:00

Oil: Super contango means consolidation in US shale

23 April 2020 As front-month WTI prices "rally" to above $15 a barrel early Thursday morning, the future is grim for many companies in the oil industry.  After oil prices broke into negative territory for the first time ever on Monday, a phenomenon in the futures market as the front-month contract expired, there are few [ Read More ]

Oil: Super contango means consolidation in US shale2022-03-05T12:54:42-06:00

Another Potential Grey Swan Event to Watch

20 April 2020 FOREX markets are moving on an unofficial report that the North Korean leader might be seriously ill. CNN reported late on Tuesday, citing what the news outlet called "a US official with direct knowledge." This news follows earlier unconfirmed reports that the North Korean leader had undergone surgery. North Korea is a [ Read More ]

Another Potential Grey Swan Event to Watch2022-03-05T12:55:52-06:00

Oil’s Historic Day: How to understand it

20 April 2020 Today, for the first time ever, prices for an oil futures contract went negative. While this reflects that producers of WTI actually have to pay to get inventory off their hands (instead of receiving pay for it), this does not mean oil is free downstream. This market phenomenon occurred in anticipation of [ Read More ]

Oil’s Historic Day: How to understand it2022-03-05T12:55:08-06:00

US Equity Markets: What to watch

17 April 2020 Markets continue to trade in direct correlation to novel coronavirus news. The S&P 500 closed at 2,874 on Friday. The S&P 500 hit a record high of 3,393 on February 19 and bottomed at 2,191 on March 23, marking a 35% decline. Since then, it has rallied significantly - markets imply [ Read More ]

US Equity Markets: What to watch2022-03-05T12:53:54-06:00

Road Map to Reopening

14 April 2020 How we reopen is the most difficult calculation we have faced in this crisis and without a vaccine or treatment intervention, there are no easy answers. Let’s be thankful, though, that we're living in the small window of human history during which that’s even possible – and in our case, most likely [ Read More ]

Road Map to Reopening2022-03-05T12:52:29-06:00

US National Policy and Collective Effort vs. COVID-19

30 March 2020 The novel coronavirus outbreak is a grey swan event that will recalibrate the global paradigm.  The prospect of going through the next year or more until a vaccine could be disseminated to the public is precarious as the US and other societies are facing the types of zero sum choices not seen [ Read More ]

US National Policy and Collective Effort vs. COVID-192022-03-05T12:51:04-06:00

How to Navigate the Outbreak

28 March 2020 | Updated: 02 April 2020 There is a light at the end of the tunnel.  I know this is surreal to most people – and unless you’ve experienced something like a military deployment, this experience is going to be a bit of a shock.  Don’t worry, though, this event is very survivable. [ Read More ]

How to Navigate the Outbreak2022-03-05T12:49:54-06:00