Capital Markets and Macro Economic Analysis
31 January 2026 2025 began largely as we expected up to the April crash. In retrospect, many professional investors were likely too bearish on the back-end of the tariff crash. There is a certain irony in modern markets where positioning and fundamentals can diverge sharply — and expensively. While many participants were focused on [ Read More ]
31 January 2024 We meaningfully outperformed the market last year – our greatest achievement to date given how difficult that proved to be in the first “stock picker’s market” seen in a long time. As much as we enjoy sharing our insights, we are a small operation; insights are the last priority of work. [ Read More ]
28 August 2022 Our Founder explains our interpretation of recent market action, our positioning, and our current expectations.
11 August 2022 Our Founder discusses why we were ahead of the July rally despite bearish views on the macroeconomic outlook and Federal Reserve policy.
27 August 2021 Our Founder discusses specific names highlighting what's worked and what hasn't so far this year, provides an update on some major themes discussed at our last virtual event, and outlines what we're watching going forward into YE.
A clip from our virtual event on 05 December 2020.
A clip from our virtual event on 05 December 2020.
06 May 2020 Some Americans' initial and relatively short-lived bravado for flattening the curve has quickly shifted over recent weeks. Ultimately, this is not surprising as the types of sacrifices that would have been required to sustain a suppression of the outbreak in the US have not been seen in generations. Now, many people either [ Read More ]
01 May 2020 Americans have collectively done better than anyone expected; a great credit to how much we can accomplish when we put aside the things that divide us and work together. Now as we move to reopen, we have to face and overcome some unfortunate facts if we want to win on the next [ Read More ]
23 April 2020 As front-month WTI prices "rally" to above $15 a barrel early Thursday morning, the future is grim for many companies in the oil industry. After oil prices broke into negative territory for the first time ever on Monday, a phenomenon in the futures market as the front-month contract expired, there are few [ Read More ]